We live in a world where any given Monday we could be faced with major critical incident. Pandemics, military conflicts, terrorist attacks or seismic geopolitical shifts. It had me thinking about a thought experiment (along with binge watching dystopian shows like Earth Abides) in which the scenario is that the internet has been disabled, how much of your intelligence capability would remain intact? How much of your tradecraft is truly yours, and how much is outsourced to software, APIs, and search engines?
But this question isn’t really just hypothetical; it’s a self-assessment. How reliant are you on SaaS tools, search algorithms, and machine-assisted analysis? More importantly, if those resources were stripped away, could you still function as an intelligence analyst? If the answer is uncertain, this becomes an opportunity for self-development.
This article is a somewhat playful exploration of what it means to be an OSINT analyst when the digital world is no longer available. We’ll examine what skills remain relevant, what alternative sources exist, and how we, as a community, can prepare for large-scale information disruptions.
How the Internet Could Be Disrupted?
While a total loss of internet access may seem like a dystopian scenario, it’s not as far-fetched as it sounds. Here are some plausible scenarios in which access could be severely restricted:
Cyber Warfare & State-Sponsored Attacks: A sophisticated cyberattack could take down entire segments of the internet, targeting DNS infrastructure, cloud providers, or major ISPs.
Undersea Cable Disruptions: The vast majority of global internet traffic relies on submarine cables. These can be sabotaged by hostile actors, severed by natural disasters, or even cut accidentally by ships’ anchors.
Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Events: A high-altitude EMP (either natural, from a solar storm, or artificial, via a nuclear detonation) could fry communications infrastructure, rendering digital networks inoperative.
Government-Imposed Internet Blackouts: Some nations have demonstrated the ability to shut down the internet within their borders, often in response to civil unrest or to exert control over information flow.
Infrastructure Failure: A failure in power grids, telecommunications infrastructure, or cloud hosting services could cause widespread outages.
Conflict & Occupation: In areas of military conflict or occupation, digital communication is often the first casualty, forcing intelligence operations to revert to traditional means.
Our Responsibility as OSINT Practitioners
As OSINT professionals, we don't just consume public information; we are custodians of it. The open-source intelligence community thrives on the availability and accessibility of information, but what happens when the ability to transfer or retrieve information is interrupted?
We have a responsibility to consider how we preserve, protect, and decentralise publicly available information. If major archives, government records, or databases become inaccessible, do we have alternative sources? Have we safeguarded critical data in a way that ensures continuity of knowledge?
This is more than a hypothetical; it’s a call to action. The OSINT community should proactively create offline repositories of vital information, establish redundant networks, and explore alternative communication methods that do not rely on centralised internet-based systems.
Preparing for Internet Disruptions: Caching and Archiving Critical Data
Offline Data Storage: Maintain a repository of key intelligence documents, maps, and research papers on secure offline drives or physical printouts.
Alternative Communication Methods: Invest in HF and VHF/UHF radio systems, satellite phones, and courier networks for information exchange.
Printed Resources: Stockpile essential books, manuals, and guides related to intelligence, cartography, emergency response, and geopolitics.
Local Network Infrastructures: Develop decentralised intranets or local mesh networks to maintain communication within a limited area.
Intelligence Dead Drops: Establish trusted physical locations for secure document exchanges in case of operational breakdowns.
Core Analytical Skills for an Intelligence Analyst
A good intelligence analyst isn’t just someone who can collect information, they must be able to assess, interpret, and derive actionable insights from it. When working without SaaS tools or software-based analysis models, an analyst must rely on core analytical methodologies to produce accurate and predictive intelligence.
Critical Path Analysis (Threat)
A Critical Path Analysis (CPA) is a method used to identify the preliminary stages of a developing threat and its indicators and warnings (I&W) to predict future activity.
Phase Identification – Breaks down a threat into its progressive stages, such as early recruitment, logistical preparation, and final execution.
Indicator Mapping – Identifies key behaviours and patterns that signal escalation, such as funding movements, precursor materials procurement, unusual travel patterns, and pre-operational surveillance.
Timeline Construction – Helps analysts determine the most vulnerable points where intervention is possible.
Threat Projection – Assesses how quickly a threat is developing and what mitigating actions can be taken.
Example Application: If monitoring a terrorist cell, Threat CPA would focus on early-stage behaviours such as recruitment efforts, access to funding sources, procurement of materials, reconnaissance of targets, and shifts in rhetoric; well before an attack is executed.
SWOT Analysis
A fundamental analytical tool, SWOT allows analysts to break down a situation or adversary into four core aspects:
Strengths: What assets, capabilities, or advantages does the subject possess?
Weaknesses: Where are the vulnerabilities?
Opportunities: What can be exploited?
Threats: What could undermine our objectives?
Competing Hypotheses Analysis
Forces analysts to consider multiple potential explanations or outcomes for a situation rather than falling into confirmation bias.
Each hypothesis is tested against available evidence, with the weakest ones being eliminated systematically.
Ensures that intelligence conclusions are robust and well-supported, even in environments with limited or conflicting data sources.
Red Teaming
A structured approach where a dedicated group plays the role of an adversary to challenge assumptions and test vulnerabilities.
Helps remove cognitive biases by thinking like the opposition.
In a no-internet scenario, red teaming could involve physical simulations, war games, and strategic exercises.
Scenario Generation & Predictive Analysis
Analysts must be able to generate potential future scenarios based on available intelligence, assessing both best-case and worst-case outcomes.
This can be done through identifying key drivers and influences on a given scenario, assessing the impact if one or multiple key drivers are altered and theorising outcomes.
This can support trend analysis, historical case studies, and the use of indicators and warnings (I&W) to anticipate events before they unfold.
Without software-driven forecasting, these skills must be honed through rigorous thought exercises and deep understanding of geopolitics, military strategy, and economic shifts.
Final Thoughts:
A world without the internet is an operational nightmare, but it doesn’t mean OSINT ceases to exist. It simply shifts back to literature, people, and physical observation. Analysts must prepare for this reality by honing fundamental intelligence tradecraft, archiving essential knowledge, and investing in redundant communication infrastructure.
If tomorrow the deep-sea cables were cut, would we still be able to function as intelligence professionals? If the answer is "not well," then it’s time to start preparing. Because in the end, intelligence is not about technology, it’s about adaptability.
